The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2015, more than double the Eurozone average (1.5%), according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made public this week in the report ‘World Economic Outlook (WEO). The figures are identical to those advanced by the IMF six months ago, although the projected growth is lower than the expectations of the Government of Spain for the next two years. Mariano Rajoy, Spanish Prime-minister, has justified all this progress in GDP growth to the measures implemented by his Government to control fiscal deficit and public expenditure. Now the Spanish government is announcing some tax relieve for the middle and lower income taxpayers. Spanish national elections are on the 20th of December 2015, so political strategies are going to be seen every day.
Moreover, Latin America, the most advanced countries have acted as emergency shelter for Spanish companies in the hardest moments of the crisis, is the world´s region with the worst prospects for growth in the short term. The IMF forecasts a decline of 0.3% in Latin America for 2015, increasing to 3.0% in the case of Brazil, the world power with the darkest expectations for this year and next, along with Russia (country where the IMF predicts a decline of 3.8% in 2015).
Economies with better short-term prospects are emerging Asia, which together grow by 6.5 in 2015 and 6.4 in 2016, according to the IMF. India leads the good data with GDP growth of 7.3 percentage points this year (the same rate already reached in 2014) and 7.5% for next year.
|Region/Country||Year 2014||Year 2015||Year 2016|
|Developing countries (World)||6,0||4,8||5,8|
|ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam)||4,6||4,6||4,9|
|Commonwealth & CEI||1,0||2,7||0,5|
|Middle-East, North of Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan||2,7||2,5||3,9|
|Latin America & the Caribbean||1,3||-0,3||0,8|
Source: IMF “World Economic Outlook 2015”
Positive outlook for China (6.8%) remain, although the new IMF chief, Maurice Obstfeld, an economist warned the act of the report that the optimism about the Asian giant depends on the implementation of measures like fiscal stimulus and infrastructure, by Beijing. Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) and sub-Saharan Africa will also present an increase in GDP around 4%. The improvement will be slower in Italy, France and Germany (0.8%, 1.2% and 1.5% for 2015) and even less significant (1.0%) in Japan (0.6%) and Canada. For the United States and the United Kingdom the IMF forecasts a steady growth (2.6% and 2.5% respectively for 2015 and 2.8% and 2.2% for 2016).