The World Bank also surrender to the evidence: the oil price it does not seem to be going to rise this year or next due to the excess of crude oil. In its latest quarterly report on commodities, made public last Tuesday, the agency based in Washington (USA) provides that a barrel of Brent crude, the European benchmark, closing the year at $ 52, up 46% from the end of 2014, and 8% higher than the current price. World Bank technical attribute this reduction in the forecast cooling of the global economy, oversupply, the decline in the price of oil shale production-the first American producer of the planet and the expectation that the withdrawal of shoot sanctions on Iranian oil exports. His forecast is that oil continue to fall next year and close 2016 at $ 51 per barrel.
The price index of raw materials World Bank plummeted 17% in the third quarter, slightly higher than the decline experienced by another benchmark to measure the evolution of these products: Bloomberg Commodity Index, which lost 14% between July and September. Oil, meanwhile has lost a fifth of its value in the period. Regardless of crude, falling raw materials in the third quarter is 5%. For this product group, the World Bank predicts a fall of 14% next year. This decline is good news for targeted at secondary and / or tertiary sectors, such as Spain and other European countries and a new bad for net commodity exporters, as most emerging economies. “We believe that the decline in the price of raw materials in the last five years will continue. The oil reserves are sufficient and overall commodity demand remains weak,” said John Baffes, author of the report. Just a week ago, the International Energy Agency, an organization created by the think tank of rich countries, the OECD predicted that a barrel of Brent would stabilize in the medium term even $ 55 per barrel assumed that the destabilization the market still definitely reversed soon.
The states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped in July on average 31.5 million barrels a day, 100,700 more than in the previous month. This raises further increase its production to its highest level since mid-2012 due to higher oil output from Nigeria, Iraq and Iran, and despite the decline of the Saudi and Qatari offer, according to official data released Tuesday by the oil organization. Production of the 12 Member States of the world’s largest oil producer organization, responsible for four of every 10 barrels consumed in the world, rose in July for the third consecutive month. This increase comes as oil prices mark lows the past seven months, with a barrel of Brent, the European benchmark, slightly above $ 50. Meanwhile, the Texas oil barrel of US benchmark, closed Tuesday at $ 43.08, its lowest level in six years.
In parallel, and despite signs of economic weakness that emits the second largest oil consumer -China-, OPEC raised Tuesday by 100,000 barrels a day its forecast for global demand by 2016, to 94 million. “In the coming months the demand for oil should continue to increase and consequently should reduce the imbalance between supply and demand,” he said in its monthly bulletin. Occur, this rebalancing should lead, according to experts, a rise in oil prices in the final stretch of the year.
It seems that there are many discrepancies about what is going to happen to the sector. The future cannot be based in Oil. The EU has confirmed that won’t be able to reach the target of CO2 reduction plan. So the temperature in the planet will rise by 3 degrees they expect. Well, when I read these kind of think I panic. They have just assumed that we won’t be able to do what we agreed on, and that’s all they have to say. Very sad. Disappointed with the EU, in theory the most democratic region in the world…
Oil will stop being the “Future” when we it becomes not profitable… it seems that there is enough oil for a few more centuries, so the only way to save the planet is our choice to set above economic profits the future of human race.