United States beats Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer in 2016, Western energy agency, which Washington approaches to energy self-sufficiency and reduce their need for supplies from OPEC.
However, in 2020, have passed the peak of the oil fields of Texas and North Dakota and the Middle East regain its dominance, especially as Asia provider, said Tuesday the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA, which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, predicted in its World Energy Outlook 2012 will surpass the United States as a leading producer Riyadh in 2017.o
Introducing the prognosis of this year, the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, chief economist said the agency now expects the US to overtake Saudi Arabia in 2016. “We see two chapters in oil markets. Until 2020, we expect to increase light oil shale; call it a rebound. And, because of the increase coming from Brazil, the need for Middle East oil in the coming years will definitely be smaller, “told Reuters in that interview”. But because of the limited resource base (oil shale in the US), it will stagnate and decline. After 2020, there will be a greater mastery of Middle East oil, “he added.
The IEA said oil prices will continue to rise and generating the development of unconventional resources such as oil shale, which has driven the US oil boom, the Canadian oil sands, production under deep waters in Brazil and fluid gas natural. Prices will climb to $ 128 firmly into 2035, three dollars higher than forecast last year. It is unlikely that other nations achieve success with US oil shale.
Far from abundance by the top 5 oil producing countries
While tight oil production will ease in the coming years, the Paris-based agency said the world was not “on the threshold of a new era of oil wealth.” By the mid-2020s, production outside OPEC will fall back and Middle East countries, among which the leading members of the Organization of Exporting Countries are Oil- provide most of the increase in supply globally.
The increased production of shale oil in the United States is helping now to meet growing demand, the forecast IEA to reach 101 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2035, which implies an increase of 14 million bpd and a slight rise from 99.7 million bpd in 2012 had been estimated.
“Oil shale is a very good news for America and the world. But demand is in Asia, “Birol said.
Therefore, we need oil from the Middle East to (meet) growth in Asian demand, “he added. In 2030 China overtake the United States as the main consumer of crude oil is expected to exceed consumption in the Middle East to the European Union, the IEA said. India became the largest single source of growing global demand for oil after 2020. The agency also said that up to 10 million bpd of refining capacity globally were at risk due to global centers that perform the activity were relocating closer to Asia.
A Minister of Qatar among many others, Mohammed bin Saleh al Sada said Sunday that the top 5 oil producing countries and OPEC, meeting in Doha to decide a freeze on oil production to January levels need to carry out more queries. “I really understand that further consultations are needed and this is the desire of the participants,” the minister said at the close of the meetings held this morning behind closed doors to who has failed Iran.
Also, Al Sada was convinced, like the Nigerian oil minister, Emmanuel Ibe Kachiwku, that the freeze would be more effective if “all major OPEC producers and Iran” were included in the agreement, because “help rebalance the market. ” According to the Qatari minister, discussions will resume at the extraordinary OPEC meeting to be held in June. As for market opening morning, Sadah said that “prices will always be subject to many unpredictable factors, but the main thing is that progress is being made.” “We hope the answer is yes how long will it take to adjust (the price)? We have to see it, but going in the right direction, “he added.
In the appointment it has been evaluated, although no final decision, the agreement reached in February by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and Venezuela, which decided to freeze production levels, and has studied the possibility of extending this agreement to the main producers.
The ultimate goal is to reduce the amount of oil that is injected into the market, currently oversaturated, so try to curb the falling price of oil, which has been devalued by 75% in the last year and a half.
Minister of Petroleum and Mining, Eulogio Del Pino, proposed that countries not Opec attending the Ministerial Meeting Producing Countries held recently in Doha, Qatar, they meet again at the next meeting of the Ministerial Conference of Petroleum Exporting Countries scheduled for June 2 of this year. Minister of Petroleum and Mining, Eulogio Del Pino, says it is clear that should continue talks to restore the balance of prices, say the senior official in Moscow in the Week of the Russian oil and gas, as reported a press release issued by the Venezuelan oil portfolio. “Those who claim that the freeze is not necessary because prices remained level in the post-Qatari meeting are wrong day,” he added in a press release.
Initiative to solve problems from the top five oil producing countries
The also president of Petroleum of Venezuela, Eulogio Del Pino take this opportunity to once again promote the initiative to reach an agreement freezing while participating in the Week of the Russian Oil Industry and Gas, held in Moscow, where he was part of the panel entitled: “Russia as a center of energy influence: diversification in terms of high competitiveness”, with the deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation; Energy Minister Alexander Novak; OAO Lukoil president; President of RSPP; and Image Dillon Hatcher.
Within the event, which brought together leading representatives of the Russian oil industry, Venezuela’s representative insisted that the oil market requires equilibrium prices that allow for the necessary investments to replace oil reserves are consumed due to the natural decline of deposits.
Freeze to balance among the top 5 oil producing countries
Del Pino affirms that depending on the characteristics of the deposits of every region, the equilibrium price will be between $ 60 and $ 70 per barrel and explained that this figure comes to linking inventory levels and prices. Necessary to restore the balance between supply and demand and the best indicator is the relationship between inventories and prices. By correlating these two factors can you see that to the extent that the low price of $ 60, there is an increase in inventories “said? He said that currently an increase in inventories, which are already over 3 billion barrels recorded. This figure is more than 300 million barrels the highest of the last 5 years average between the top 5 oil producing countries.
“We need to restore balance in inventories and prices. We believe that the balance the inventories is in the order of 2,500 million barrels and balance in prices is in the order of $ 60-70 per barrel, so we must take the market about 300 million barrels in inventories and to stabilize need to freeze production. That’s why we made this proposal, which was welcomed by many countries, ” said, referring to the 8 countries attending Doha in order to adhere to the agreement freezing production that had announced Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and Venezuela.
Del Pino said that those who indicate that prices remained level in the two years following the Doha meeting days shows that the freezing of production was not necessary are wrong; “Such an analysis is faked because they are saying in the midst of a strike by oil workers in Kuwait who took the market 1.6 million barrels per day, that creates a more drastic than we were proposing to freeze impact.” He saw that coming, on the contrary, oil prices may drop in the coming weeks. Qatar announced that the Doha meeting runs through June.